The first quarter of 2025 has seen a dramatic 28% drop average container freight rates for Chinese exports, marking the worst performance in the past 20 years. According to Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) dropped from 1,548 to 1,112, largely driven by record-high falls in spot rates. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has also experienced a sharp 46% decline since the start of the year.
- The East-West trade routes, particularly to Europe and the Mediterranean, saw the biggest rate drops of 33% and 32% respectively.
- North-South trades, including routes to South Africa, Australia/New Zealand, South America, and West Africa, saw rate reductions ranging from 26% to 40%.
- Interestingly, China-Japan routes remained stable, with no drop rates.
- Despite the drop, average rates are only 8% lower than during the same period last year, while remaining 39% higher than in 2019.
With a projected 5.4% growth in container ship fleet capacity by 2025, freight rates may stay lower compared to 2024. The global trade uncertainty, especially due to US import tariffs and rising geopolitical tensions, is creating a complex environment for the shipping industry.
